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Will the momentum in pre-owned sales seen in Q4 2025 last into 2026?
Five leading brokers probe the prospects for pre-owned jet sales in comments made before President Trump’s threat of new tariffs linked to Greenland and conflict in the Middle East.
Oliver Stone, MD, Colibri Aircraft
“2026’s transaction numbers will be very similar to those seen last year.”
Short term, the overall transaction momentum that we see in the fourth quarter of each year will historically fall sharply in the first quarter as the tax incentives for US buyers are no longer pressing and most demand has been sated in the previous quarter.
Momentum usually returns in the second quarter and maintains until a strong fourth quarter returns due to depreciation-driven buying. Whether 2026 will exceed 2025 in terms of transaction numbers depends upon macroeconomic trends, something that is unpredictable at the best of times.
That being said, while the USA has been reported to be busier than normal in 2025, we have not seen a similar trend for Europe. Europe’s pre-owned transaction numbers have been consistent, but not increasing, for 15 years and we expect that trend to continue in the foreseeable future.
Factors for this steady but not increasing transaction volume have been an increasing reluctance in US-based buyers to purchase overseas aircraft, steadily and materially increasing ownership costs and a greater environmental concern than exists in the US. Unfortunately, these are trends that we do not see changing and so from a European perspective we predict 2026’s transaction numbers to be very similar to 2025.
Andre Khury, CEO ACASS
While there are always unpredictable factors that could slow sales, 2025 pre-owned aircraft market momentum, specifically on the tail end, is likely to carry over to 2026.
The buyer base continues to expand, driven by ever-increasing benefits to private travel and more first-time buyers entering the market. The number of people considered ultra-high net worth keeps growing and Forbes’ Billionaires List added 288 newcomers to the ranking in 2025. Those are all individuals who are either already travelling private or likely to become interested, which will lead to more activity.
At the same time, ongoing OEM backlogs and production constraints – some makes and models won’t deliver until 2029 – are pushing more buyers to the pre-owned market, where aircraft are available sooner and at a lower cost. If interest rates remain relatively low – SOFR [secured overnight financing rate] averaged below 4% throughout 2025 – that should support transactions and encourage robust deal flow in 2026.
ACASS hired three additional sales directors in 2025. This was largely in response to vibrant market activity, and in anticipation of it continuing in 2026. We also have several major marketing initiatives planned to highlight the unique options and opportunities ACASS can offer the current market. We are primed to meet the evolving needs of our existing client base and to attract and acquire new clients.
Michael Barber, MD & Vice President, Sales Operations, jetAVIVA
The closing surge in the fourth quarter of 2025 was driven by a convergence of factors: stabilised pricing after two years of correction, clearer expectations around residual values, increased inventory across key segments and the return of disciplined buyers who had been waiting for predictability.
The second-half stabilisation of tariff structures and the removal of several lingering tariff impediments also cleared deal friction that had slowed cross-border activity earlier in the year. That created additional momentum going into year-end, though as long as negotiated trade dynamics remain in place, tariffs should play a far smaller role.
The question now is whether that surge was an anomaly or the start of a more sustainable cycle. Early indicators point to measured continuity rather than a repeat spike. Buyers and sellers are entering 2026 with grounded expectations, supporting steady transaction flow. Inventory remains healthy, especially in the super-mid and large-cabin segments, and the gap between market-priced aircraft and aspirational listings is finally narrowing another tailwind.
What’s unlikely to repeat is the urgency of late 2025, driven by bonus-depreciation timing, tax pressure and clearing prebuy backlogs. Expect 2026 to bring consistent, rational activity that rewards preparedness, clean aircraft and realistic pricing, not adrenaline-driven closings.
“Early indicators point to measured continuity rather than a repeat spike in the business jet market.”
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Zipporah Marmor, Managing Partner, Opus Aero
We expect the pre-owned business aircraft market to remain active and stable through 2026. The pace of growth should be steady rather than exceptional, but overall momentum remains strong.
In the US, the return of 100% bonus depreciation helped drive significant activity in the final months of 2025. This was partially offset by tariff restrictions, which limited the number of international aircraft available to US buyers. As these tariffs are reduced or clarified, we anticipate a healthier flow of inventory into the US market, supporting additional transactions.
Fractional and charter operators also continue to play an important role. Established companies – and new entrants – are placing record orders and experiencing record flight activity. As more people are introduced to private aviation through these models, many continue flying privately, expanding the market further. With commercial travel becoming more challenging and the US economy expected to remain strong, demand for business aircraft should stay solid.
New aircraft availability from most manufacturers remains close to a two-year lead time, which continues to make younger pre-owned aircraft – especially up to five years old – highly attractive to buyers. We are seeing strong interest in late-model Embraer Praetors and Phenom 300Es, many of which sell before ever officially entering the market.
The Middle East remains one of the most active regions globally, particularly for large-cabin, long-range aircraft. Demand in this segment remains strong, supported by a clear preference for long-range aircraft. We are also seeing a younger generation of first-time buyers entering the market directly at the large-cabin level.
We remain optimistic about the opportunities to come in 2026.
“100% bonus depreciation has helped to drive significant activity in the final months of 2025.”
Mark Butler, CEO, Action Aviation
First and foremost, it is important to clarify that the period compatible with the last quarter of 2025 would actually be fourth quarter of 2026, rather than first quarter or year overall. Traditionally, the last quarter of the year is the busiest, and the reintroduction of 100% bonus depreciation in the US further enhances this incentive on a psychological level.
Saying that, we believe that the current trend we observe – the strengthening of the pre-owned market with stabilising inventory levels and pricing – will continue, albeit with nuances that require further elaboration. Such nuances can be examined through the lens of three key factors: first, the geopolitical situation; second, the backlogs of OEMs on new orders; and third, cost of capital.
The geopolitical landscape is likely to shape segment-specific trends and regional activities. By analogy, the extensively debated tariffs, along with the ambiguity surrounding their applicability, have influenced American buyers, who inclined to prioritise US-manufactured and US-based aircraft.
However, it is worth noting that we have not observed any decline in transaction volumes globally compared with previous periods. The backlogs on OEMs’ new orders traditionally support the pre-owned aircraft market. Additionally, while the cost of capital may not seem like a critical factor, it is important to consider higher financing costs. This will influence not only buyers' decision-making processes but also pricing trends in the market, sales cycles and consequently classic market indicators like volume of transactions and absorption rates.
Todd Guelich, SVP Assured Partners
Premiums are primarily associated with the “cost” of insurance. Q4 of 2024 offered an initial reversal from the conservative, risk adverse underwriting attitudes which began in 2018. We are experiencing a consistent reduction in rates across multiple facets operations and with additional underwriting capacity, a more liberal interest in accepting risk. While these changes vary, it is a welcome change from 2024’s increases. Equally, coverages, expanded limits and deductible improvements are accompanying this revitalised underwriter aggressiveness. Provided we don’t experience a significant loss event, this trend is anticipated to continue.
Alex Trotter, Willis Towers Watson
Capacity in the general aviation market remains healthy but economic challenges are complicating the outlook. The general aviation insurance trading environment is following the trends set by the airline and aerospace markets last year. While negotiations have become more robust, insurance capacity for well-managed general aviation risks with good loss records remains relatively high and is the key driver of the competitive pricing dynamics. In conclusion, the general aviation sector offers customers a varied selection of solutions, from executive travel in the latest business jet to helicopter-slung load aid deliveries in challenging locations. Insurers, while instinctively conscious of anything out of the ordinary, continue to respond to the challenges operators and their brokers present to them. As ever, transparency and communication all parties remains key.
