CJI RevAero 2022
Bring 300, innovators, investors, regulators, operators and other stakeholders together and you get two amazing days looking at how fast aviation is changing. Words: Alasdair Whyte
REVOLUTION.AERO IS the conference for people shaping the future of flight. Attendees vary from people at some of the world’s largest companies to start-ups looking for their first investors.
The industry has matured a lot from our first conference. Two start-ups that attended the first conference back in 2018 are now listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. You could see that in the clothes people wore. Back in 2018, at least half the audience were in fleeces, with a few in tracksuits. Now most people wear suits. Finding investors in 2022 is not as easy as it was. This was highlighted in the opening session featuring five venture capitalist funds and investors (pictured above).
“Things have slowed down a little, but we are not too concerned. But everyone who is a smart founder should probably be a little bit conservative now,” said Jim Lockheed, JetBlue Technology Ventures.
“I would argue more than a little bit,” said Jim Adler of Toyota Ventures. “You have got to literally super-focus on making that cash last until your next financing. That is the only way you are going to make it there. Job one of the CEO is keep the bank full enough.”
Paul Willard, partner, Grep VC, added: “This is where an aircraft metaphor is always used – the importance of runway.”
The winners of the Pitch Competition.
Back in San Francisco.
Back in San Francisco.
Cyrus Sigari, co-founder, UP Partners. “It is friggin-cool to see it all come to reality.”
Perhaps surprisingly most of the opening panel expected to close more investments in the next few years. “Downturns are always great times to make investments. Some of the best companies were founded in downturns,” said Adler.
“Absolutely,” agreed Brian Schettler, head of AEI HorizonX. “The LPs [limited partners who invest in venture capital] looking to invest in VC that we are speaking with think 2022 and 2023 are going to be some of the best vintages of funds to invest in.”
In 2019 Uber Elevate predicted that electric vertical aircraft would be flying in Dallas, Los Angeles and Melbourne, Australia this year. Half of the nearly 300 attendees at Revolution.Aero San Francisco now think that widespread operations (in multiple cities) will happen after 2035 (with 41% after 2030).
“We will see flights in the next five years,” said Schettler. “But I would say truly widespread in 2035.” Most of the venture capitalists were more optimistic about freight.
One reason for this change is that regulators like the FAA have made it clear that they will never prioritise speed to market over safety when certificating aircraft.
“While it may at times be a challenge for a safety focused regulator – like the FAA – to keep pace with the speed of the private sector innovator, I am happy to say that we have a robust, agile, system along with a strong and capable organisation to accommodate new and novel design ideas,” said Lirio Liu, executive director Aircraft Certification Service, FAA. “The FAA is in partnership with you to safely advance those innovative programmes. My organisation is focused on making the FAA certification path as efficient and predictable as possible – and that predictability is important. This new golden age is truly amazing, but it presents some challenges for the FAA.”
“There is going to be a transformation in aviation.” Dean Donovan, co-founder, DiamondStream Partners.
“All the innovation needs to continue – some of it a lot faster.” Yesh Premkumar, head of product, Supernal, Hyundai’s advanced air mobility project.
“We can apply synthetic biology to an organism to produce enzyme pathways to make a particular product”
Dan Robertson, scientific adviser, Kiverdi
“There is going to be a transformation in aviation.” Dean Donovan, co-founder, DiamondStream Partners.
“All the innovation needs to continue – some of it a lot faster.” Yesh Premkumar, head of product, Supernal, Hyundai’s advanced air mobility project.
“We can apply synthetic biology to an organism to produce enzyme pathways to make a particular product”
Dan Robertson, scientific adviser, Kiverdi
With the first deliveries approaching, the focus is now shifting to operating the aircraft safely. Training is going to be a huge issue. “We need operators working jointly with training organisations,” said Christophe Lapierre, group head of strategy, Luxaviation. One issue is that all the leading electric vertical aircraft are very different from each other. “They all have very different control systems and I would not want to train one pilot in one area and then have them move to another aircraft,” said Chris Courtney, director of Advanced Air Mobility, CAE.
Bryan Willows, program manager for Advanced Air Mobility, Bristow, highlighted how quickly the industry needs to be for first delivers. “We are talking 2025 and 2022 is basically over. There is not a lot of time.”
With 26 sessions – ranging from batteries (they will be ready) to autonomy (which needs careful definition), from sustainable aviation fuel made from bacteria converting hydrogen and carbon dioxide to delivering burgers in Arkansas – it is hard to keep up. The finance panel, in particular, also got quite heated.
But at the end of the day, like everything in aviation, there was always a focus on safety.
“Now is the time for commercial air carriers to work with OEMs, with regulators and infrastructure companies to ensure these aircraft can become a reality in a day-to-day operational role,” said Mandy Nelson, director – strategic relationships, Advanced Air Mobility, Bristow. “We can’t assume that just because investors fund it and regulators certify it and operators buy it that the public are going to be really willing to get onboard right from the gate. We have a lot of work to do as operators to demonstrate the safe and reliable operations with these new vehicles.”
Jay Carmel, Avascent outlined the £15bn that has been invested in the fourth aviation revolution.
Kirsten Bartok, co-founder, New Vista, AF Capital and AirFinance.
Lirio Liu, executive director Aircraft Certification Service, FAA.
Kirsten Bartok, co-founder, New Vista, AF Capital and AirFinance.
Lirio Liu, executive director Aircraft Certification Service, FAA.
