‘Not worried but vigilant’
What would more than one million new satellite launches mean for business aviation? Could there be a downside to improved connectivity services? Words: Mike Stones
‘Not worried but vigilant’
What would more than one million new satellite launches mean for business aviation? Could there be a downside to improved connectivity services? Words: Mike Stones
Andrew Faiola, commercial vice president of in-orbit servicing company Astroscale
GAZE INTO the darkness of a black night sky and wonder. Do it soon – while it lasts. In January 2026, tech wizard and sometime trillionaire Elon Musk applied to the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) through his company SpaceX to launch up to one million solar-powered satellites. These satellites aim to provide high-power, off-world data processing to meet rising demand for global artificial intelligence. If approved, they will join 17,501 satellites in various Earth orbits, according to Orbital Radar, the live satellite tracking and space intelligence group.
It’s not simply an aesthetic problem for dark sky lovers. At the end of June this year, Orbital Radar tracked a total of 28,874 objects in Earth orbit. Not just satellites but also debris, rocket bodies and other mission-related objects.
Andrew Faiola, commercial vice president of in-orbit servicing company Astroscale explains the risks: “In orbit there are fragments down to five or 10 centimetres that are being tracked. Even a fragment the size of your thumbnail has the kinetic energy of a bullet.”
The nightmare scenario is the Kessler Syndrome, proposed by NASA scientist Donald Kessler in 1978. This is a theoretical runaway chain reaction that could happen in low Earth orbit. Here, the density of space debris becomes so high that collisions between objects generate more debris, triggering a self-sustaining cascade. At its worst, some orbital regions, packed with debris, could be made completely unusable.
Debris colliding with satellites could disable them. It’s not just a case of principals losing connectivity in the cabin. Aircrew could be denied vital communications and navigation systems. Beyond aviation, wide sections of society could be impacted.
For example, the global banking system relies on satellites for time-stamping financial transactions and most people depend on global positioning systems.
So, should business aviation and society at large worry about the proliferation of satellites and space debris? “Worry is not the right emotion,” says Faiola. “I think we should be concerned and vigilant. We should be careful that we don’t overpopulate the space environment before we have technology and regulations and guidelines to match capabilities with capacity.”
Faiola is well-placed to comment. Before joining Astroscale, a public company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, he specialised in the satellite communications supporting connectivity solutions aboard aircraft and superyachts. Faiola describes the satellite services company as “the RAC [car rescue service] for space”.
Previously, satellites were designed for single use and were deployed on a one-up-one-down basis. But now technology has improved to the point where lengthening operational life is feasible. “A growing number of companies like ours believe that there’s a better way to do things in terms of extending the life of spacecraft [including satellites],” he explains. “That means being able to use spacecraft for longer and potentially refurbish and refuel them. Also, when unexpected failures inevitably arise – or as part of their overall service – they can be removed by external means.”
There used to be a rule that spacecraft had to be de-orbited within 25 years of the end of their working life. That has now been reduced to five years – but should the figure be even lower, questions Faiola? “Let’s say the market consensus is somewhere about 90% post-mission disposal rate within that five-year period after end of service. But the reality is that the industry average right now is around 60%.”
Shola Efunshile, chief operating officer of French satcom start-up UNIVITY believes that the industry has a collective responsibility to be more active in the way it de-orbits satellites at the end of their working lives. “The right thing to do is to make sure that once we’ve finished using particular space for our satellites, that we get them out of the way and allow somebody else to use the space,” she tells us.
Efunshile also offers reassurance on Musk’s satellite launch plans. “We have to remember it would take years to get a million satellites into orbit, by which time the first ones have already come down.” But she does acknowledge the proliferation of launches. “The challenge has been that the exploitation of space in the recent years has increased exponentially, so we’re having to move fast for the regulation to keep up and for the practices to keep up with that.”
UNIVITY is building a neutral, wholesale satellite network designed to provide direct-to-cell 5G and high-speed broadband connectivity. This will enable telecom operators to extend their existing networks using space technology without the need to invest in their own satellites, it says. The start-up is planning to launch commercial services in 2030, using a constellation of satellites in very low Earth orbit (VLEO). This orbit offers low-latency connectivity, allows for smaller, more compact ground antennas and enables satellites to de-orbit themselves at the end of their working life, claims Efunshile.
“The challenge has been that the exploitation of space in recent years has increased exponentially …”
Astroscale’s ELSA-M (End-of-Life Services by Astroscale-Multi) is designed to capture and remove defunct satellites from low Earth orbit (LEO).
Faiola and Efunshile are not alone in sounding caution about the implications of new launches. Gabriella Mifsud, associate (Aviation and Aerospace) Clyde & Co identifies three risks associated with debris from end-of-life satellites. The first two are debris colliding with satellites disrupting in-flight Wi-Fi services and denying aircraft satellite services for communications and navigation.
The third risk concerns space debris striking aircraft in flight. “This is a remote risk because even though we are seeing a congested outer space and congested orbits, the chances of those fragments or pieces re-entering and colliding with aircraft is quite low,” says Mifsud. “But it remains a risk nonetheless.”
While satellite operators are responsible for planning the end-of-life care, Mifsud believes business aviation should take an interest in their plans. Everyone in aviation is coming under increasing pressure to scrutinise their supply chains as part of the industry’s responsibility to meet net zero commitments by 2050, under the Paris Agreement of 2015, she says, particularly in the EU. Clyde & Co advises clients on satellite insurance, financing, commercial agreements and disputes.
Robert Vega, vice president, product development of connectivity and in-flight communication systems provider Gogo highlights the challenge presented by the end-of-life care not of individual satellites but satellite constellations.
When that happens aircraft owners need to reinvest, demodulate the existing hardware of the aircraft and then reinstall new hardware. “It’s quite a significant investment at that point,” says Vega. “It’s something we have thought about in our terminal development plans and is the reason we try to make things as modular and agnostic as possible.”
But Vega thinks the end of life of an individual satellite on a low Earth orbit (LEO) network is probably insignificant from an end-user perspective. “They generally have spares in orbit, or there’s enough additional coverage with the other satellites that you’re not going to notice it,” he tells us. “As you go to higher orbits, it becomes more noticeable and I think from a satellite operator perspective, there’s probably a lot of concern, how do you properly de-orbit an end-of-life satellite.”
However, for a satellite operator using geostationary Earth orbits (GEO), if they don’t have a ready replacement to cover that area with comparable or better capacity, there is going to be a significant impact on the end-user experience, he adds. Plus, the cost of deploying a satellite in GEO orbit is so much higher than in LEO.
However, satellite operators do a good job of “road mapping” to locate satellites and plan for continuing coverage when individual satellites approach the end of their working life, he tells us. “We look at it as the satellite operator’s responsibility to be a good steward to their satellites in space and for the most part they are,” says Vega. “When something is reaching the end of its life, they should have a plan to gracefully de-orbit it while continuing to provide service. Our partners generally do a good job of this today.”
Gabriella Mifsud, Clyde & Co.
Objects in Earth orbit
Total tracked objects
Active satellites (with operational payloads)
Debris fragments
Rocket bodies (spent upper stages)
Source: Orbital Radar
Gogo’s Robert Vega says business aviation should play a part in satellite planning.
But Vega also thinks business aviation should take some interest in satellite planning. Vega looks at the topic from a supply chain perspective. “Everybody in that supply chain has their responsibility,” he says. “The business aviation community should collectively have discussions about space sustainability.”
Faiola detects a growing interest in introducing more sustainable practices in space. Current regulations around end-of-life satellite care – known in the industry as post-mission disposal – are not yet keeping up with the volume of satellites being launched.
“We look at it as the satellite operator’s responsibility to be a good steward to their satellites in space and for the most part they are.”
Robert Vega, vice president, Product Development of connectivity and in-flight communication systems provider, Gogo
“There’s a growing wave of influence and desire to treat our orbital flight paths – our orbital sea lanes – in a more sustainable way,” he says. “There’s a recognition that we must be better stewards of those global commons [in space]. There are no national boundaries in space so – there is a bit of a free-rider problem. People in my business would say we still need a bit more regulation to incentivise better behaviour. There are very few penalties for non-compliance.”
While national governments and international organisations oversee the satellite industry, there is no supranational body regulating their use – no equivalent for space of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
Mifsud, at Clyde & Co, agrees with the need for satellite sustainability. “There is a lot of awareness about how we should be building satellites to extend their life – especially at an international level. The UK government is taking a close look at this,” she says.
The UK CAA recently amended its orbital operation licences to prioritise end-of-life care. “Applications submitted after January 31st this year require operators to submit an end-of-life plan for their satellites,” says Mifsud. “Also, in the EU, there’s a big focus on how you need to make your whole value chain be compliant with certain sustainability rules. For business jet operators that value chain includes companies supplying connectivity solutions and the operators they use.”
Faiola singles out Starlink for particular praise. “The way the Starlink constellation is managed is probably top of the industry,” says Faiola. “He [Elon Musk] has designed a constellation that utilises the orbital shells they have extremely effectively. They operate their spacecraft in terms of collision avoidance manoeuvres to a higher standard than is industry standard.”
Vega at Gogo says satellite operators are investing more in constellation management. As the number of satellites launches increases, he thinks it will become “more a front-of-mind type of conversation than it has been in the past”. But, in general, Vega believes end-of-life satellite care has been managed fairly well by most of the existing satellite operators Gogo works with. “Every time there’s been an issue, they tend to manage it, they have contingency plans.”
Ultimately, the number of launches will be dictated by the market. “This won’t be a never-ending growth path,” says Vega. “There’s going to be an element of diminishing returns at which point you’re going to have the number of satellites that the market needs. I think we’re probably within 10 to 15 years of hitting that.”
